How Moneyline Bets Work: Payouts, Odds and Probability

A moneyline bet is a wager on which team or player wins a game outright. The margin of victory does not matter: a one-point win and a twenty-point win pay the same. Each side carries a price in American odds, with a minus number on the favorite and a plus number on the underdog, and that price sets the payout.

Moneylines are the simplest market on a betting board, but simple does not mean free. Both sides of a moneyline include the sportsbook’s margin, so the two implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. A bettor who backs favorites needs a high win rate just to break even, and a bettor who backs underdogs needs far fewer wins but collects only occasionally.

This guide explains how a moneyline is settled, how payouts are calculated at different stakes, what each price implies, how three-way moneylines work, and how a moneyline differs from a point spread. All teams and prices below are hypothetical, and nothing here recommends a side.

What a Moneyline Bet Is and How It Settles

A moneyline bet has one question: who wins? The bettor picks the outright winner, and the final score only matters to decide that winner. If the chosen team wins, the bet pays at the posted price. If it loses, the stake is lost. Unlike a point spread, no points are added or subtracted. Readers new to the plus-and-minus format can start with how to read American odds before continuing.

Every two-way moneyline lists a favorite and an underdog. The favorite carries a minus price and the underdog carries a plus price, for example Team A at -180 and Team B at +155. The favorite is the side the market rates as more likely to win, so a bet on it risks more to win less. The underdog is rated as less likely, so a bet on it risks less to win more.

Not every game ends with a winner. In sports where ties are possible, such as soccer or, rarely, football, settlement for a tie depends on the market and the sportsbook. A two-way moneyline often refunds the stake on a tie, while a three-way moneyline treats the draw as its own outcome. Overtime rules also differ: some markets count overtime and extra innings, and others settle on regulation time only. House rules decide, so check them before betting.

Moneylines appear in almost every sport, including football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis and combat sports. The mechanics are identical across sports, although how often favorites win and how large the prices get varies a great deal by sport.

How Moneyline Odds Work: Payouts and Implied Probability

Payouts at any stake

The price scales with the stake. For a favorite at minus odds, profit equals the stake times 100 divided by the price. For an underdog at plus odds, profit equals the stake times the price divided by 100. Total return always equals the stake plus the profit, and a losing bet returns nothing. At -180, a $90 stake earns $90 × 100 ÷ 180 = $50 in profit. At +155, a $40 stake earns $40 × 155 ÷ 100 = $62 in profit.

Implied probability on each side

Each price implies a probability. For a favorite, it is the price divided by (price + 100), so -180 gives 180 ÷ 280 = 64.29%. For an underdog, it is 100 divided by (price + 100), so +155 gives 100 ÷ 255 = 39.22%. The two implied probabilities add up to 103.50%, not 100%. The extra 3.50 points are the overround, which is the sportsbook’s margin built into the pair of prices.

Removing the margin

Dividing each implied probability by 103.50% produces no-vig, or fair, probabilities of about 62.11% for Team A and 37.89% for Team B. These are the market’s estimate with the margin removed, not a guarantee, and nobody knows the true probability of a game.

A Worked Example: A Hypothetical Moneyline Bet

Suppose a hypothetical game lists Team A at -180 and Team B at +155. A bettor who stakes $100 on Team A would earn $100 × 100 ÷ 180 = $55.56 in profit if Team A wins, for a total return of $155.56. If Team A loses, the $100 is lost. A bettor who stakes $100 on Team B would earn $155 in profit if Team B wins, for a $255 total return, and would lose the $100 if Team B loses.

Now suppose Team A wins 24-21. The Team A bet wins, the Team B bet loses, and the three-point margin is irrelevant. Only the winner determines a moneyline result, which is the central difference from a spread.

The break-even win rates differ sharply. A Team A bettor must win 64.29% of such bets to break even, while a Team B bettor must win 39.22%. A bettor who wins 60% of -180 bets is still losing money. Break-even win rate equals the implied probability of the price, and the vig makes it a little harder to clear than a fair price would be.

The Numbers That Matter: Price, Payout and Break-Even

The table shows how a moneyline price translates into profit on a $100 stake and into the win rate needed to break even at that price. It also shows the trade-off built into every moneyline: bigger payouts come with lower required win rates, and smaller payouts come with higher ones.

A -500 favorite pays only $20 on a $100 stake, so the bettor needs to win 83.33% of such bets to break even. One loss at -500 erases five wins. An underdog at +200 needs only 33.33%, but long losing streaks are normal at that price. Neither side is a better deal by itself, because both prices already include the sportsbook’s margin. Over the long run the margin means the average bettor loses money on moneylines, whichever side is chosen.

Three-Way Moneylines and Moneyline vs. Spread

A three-way moneyline adds the draw as a separate outcome. Suppose a hypothetical soccer match lists Team A at +120, the draw at +230 and Team B at +240. The implied probabilities are 45.45%, 30.30% and 29.41%, which total about 105.17%. Three outcomes usually carry a larger total margin than two, and a draw means both team bets lose. Many sportsbooks settle three-way markets on regulation time, but the house rules decide.

A spread differs from a moneyline because the margin matters. Suppose Team A is -180 on the moneyline or -3.5 at -110 on the spread. If Team A wins by 3, the moneyline bet wins and the spread bet loses. If Team A wins by 7, both win. If Team B wins, the moneyline on Team B pays +155, and Team B +3.5 on the spread also wins. A spread trades a smaller payout swing for a margin requirement, while a moneyline asks only who wins.

Common Moneyline Mistakes

The first mistake is treating a heavy favorite as safe. A -500 price still implies a 16.67% chance of losing, and upsets happen regularly across a season. A second mistake is chasing underdog prices for the payout alone. A +200 price pays well because the market rates the outcome as unlikely, and the vig still applies.

Another error is confusing a moneyline with a spread. A bettor who expects a team to “win by a lot” has not made a moneyline bet. A moneyline pays on the win itself, however narrow. Finally, some bettors assume every sportsbook settles ties, overtime and postponed games the same way. They do not, and the house rules page is the only reliable source.

Practical Checks Before Placing a Moneyline Bet

Before confirming a bet, read the slip for the price, the stake, the “to win” figure and the total payout. Confirm the settlement rules for overtime and ties in the house rules, because they can change whether a bet wins, loses or is refunded. Prices for the same game can differ between sportsbooks, so comparing prices where legal is a normal habit.

Decide a budget before betting and treat it as entertainment spending. Never stake money needed for essentials, and never increase stakes to win back losses. Availability and legality of sports betting vary by state.

Where Moneylines Fit in the Betting Path

Moneylines are usually the first market a new bettor learns because the question is so direct. From here, the logical next topics are point spreads and totals, which add a margin or a combined score to the question, and then parlays, which combine several moneylines into one bet with a much higher built-in margin.

Betting strategy ideas such as break-even rates, expected value and line shopping all build on the price-to-probability link shown above. Every later concept starts with converting a price into a probability, which makes a clear grasp of moneyline pricing a good foundation.